Electric Long-Haul Trucks vs Diesel

Executive Summary

• Break-even is operating-condition specific, not vehicle specific. Depot-based, high-mileage operation with cheap overnight power can already beat diesel per km in Germany and in narrow UK depot cases, while full reliance on public high-power charging generally does not without toll relief. The German Aerospace Center policy brief puts the threshold at around €0.21–0.25/kWh for BETs to be cheaper than diesel, versus reported external charging above €0.35/kWh as a major cost challenge ^[10].
• Tolls dominate geography. Germany's CO2-differentiated LKW-Maut creates a ~€0.32/km toll differential favouring electric, versus €0.00 in Poland and the UK in the same comparison, and a Paris–Berlin calculation of €0.995/km electric vs ~€1.003/km diesel ^[85]. Germany grants 100% exemption with no CO2 charge as of March 2026 (diesel €0.19/km + €0.158/km) ^[35], now extended to 30 June 2031 ^[81][89]; Poland charges electric 0.00 PLN/km vs Euro 6 >18t 5+ axles 0.52 PLN/km ^[90] but has no German-scale per-km saving; the UK has no distance-based HGV toll, so the case rests on energy, grants and maintenance ^[78].
• Charging mode decides energy cost more than vehicle efficiency. Private depot at €0.286/kWh vs public at €0.40/kWh in the German ICCT assumption ^[35], Polish private PLN 1.16/kWh vs public PLN 1.71/kWh ^[35] / modelled depot zł1.2/kWh (€0.28/kWh) vs Milence public zł1.7/kWh (€0.39/kWh) ^[28], and UK depot/home ~26p/kWh cap vs rapid/ultra-rapid 77p/kWh PAYG average in August 2026 ^[87][34] explain why simulations assuming 20% public / 80% depot ^[1], 50% fast charging ^[14] or 75% depot / 25% public ^[85] diverge sharply.
• Measured operations validate efficiency but only for depot-heavy duty cycles. PepsiCo's 36 Tesla Semis accumulated over 5.8 million km at 425 km daily with 31,000–36,000 kg payloads, averaging 716 km real-world range, $0.17/km energy vs $0.43/km diesel and 4.2 vs 12.7 maintenance events/year ^[52], with 92% overnight depot charging and only 3 roadside events/truck/month ^[52]. This is not proof for mixed public-MCS long-haul at >500 km/day ^[23].
• What operators can act on now: prioritise predictable <300–400 km/day, depot-returning routes for electrification; lock depot grid requests early and add storage/load management; route zero-emission trucks on high-toll German corridors; and stack time-limited purchase and depot grants where eligible. Grid connection remains the critical path: up to 2.5 years for a large German charging park ^[27], 5–6 years average for German SMEs for depot charging ^[32], up to a decade in the UK ^[20], and 12–36 months for MW-class chargers generally ^[53].

1. Vehicles available in Europe in 2026: price, specification, consumption, range and payload

1.1 Long-haul BET models on sale or rolling out

Long-haul ranges up to 600 km are now manufacturer-claimed across major OEMs, with one extended-range variant to 700 km, but all figures are test-condition claims, not measured fleet averages.

Volvo states the Aero Electric was tested from extreme cold to intense heat on highways and worksites to deliver long range even under heavy loads ^[65], and offers Open Charge, Charging Management, simulation and energy-prediction tools ^[65]. Mercedes-Benz states LFP chemistry with no nickel or cobalt ^[56][66], service life up to 1,200,000 km ^[56][64][66], high-voltage warranty 72 months / 720,000 km / 1,800 cycles and ePowertrain 36 months / 360,000 km ^[56]. These are manufacturer durability claims, not observed residual-value evidence.

Electric-truck scale is growing but remains small:

• Dozens of models are described as in mass production with long-haul ranges up to 600 km ^[81].
• EU battery-electric truck registrations rose 68% between 2023 and 2025, reaching 5.6% market share in H2 2025 driven by 2025 fleet standards ^[51].
• Strategy&/PwC put 2025 e-truck share at 7.1% Germany, 4.7% EU ^[32].
• Milence counts Q4 2025 >16t electric share at 3.8% Germany (498), 0.2% Poland (16), 1.7% UK (166) ^[85].

1.2 Purchase-price gap and second-hand diesel benchmarks

Electric trucks still cost two to three times more upfront than comparable diesels ^[10][51].

• US-centred benchmarks illustrate assumption spread rather than German/Polish/UK transaction prices: 2024 diesel Class 8 $150,000–$180,000 vs electric $350,000–$500,000, premium 100–200% ^[15].
• 2022 average BEV ~$450,000 plus 12% excise ~$500,000 ^[48][50].
• Tesla Semi $290,000 for 500-mile vs new diesel ~$180,000, premium $110,000 ^[16].
• Aggregator conversions for Europe (retain as listed, not as validated transactions) include Volvo FH Aero Electric 2026 $276,525, MAN eTGX $350,000 (€320,000/£270,000), Mercedes eActros 600 $450,000 ^[52][63].

More directly usable for 40t tractor comparisons:

• Ireland list: eActros 600 40t artic €390,000 incl. 23% VAT, vs diesel baseline €131,000 ex VAT, differential €186,073 ^[62].
• Germany/Poland/Netherlands new 2026 Volvo diesel 4x2 asking prices: €118,500 (510 HP, 236 km, Hamburg) ^[68], €109,900 (460 HP, 50 km, Tarnowo Podgórne, Poland) ^[68], €114,900 (500 HP, Netherlands) ^[68]; 2026 DAF XG diesel €75,000–€125,500 across 28 ads, all diesel, no BET variant shown ^[70]; 13 of 28 ads show price on request ^[70].
• Used diesel depreciation anchors: Volvo FH 500 (2023, 310–420k km) €58,000–€97,000; FH 460 (2021, 500–700k km) €35,000–€63,000 ^[68]; UK 2021 FH5 500 Globetrotter XXL 6x2 at 450k km £48,000–£68,000 ^[59]; FH 540 2021–23 350–600k km £52,000–£72,000 ^[59]. Listings note Euro 6 predominance, with one 2026 diesel listed as Euro 5, and several price-on-request ^[68].

The evidence does not provide observed 2026 resale prices for 40–44t BETs in Germany, Poland or the UK; residual values are modelled (see Section 3.4).

1.3 Energy consumption and range in measured vs claimed conditions

Studies estimate average BET consumption at roughly 1 kWh/km, up to 60% more energy-efficient than diesel ^[10]. Specific simulation inputs:

• Fraunhofer Germany: 1.12 kWh/km rigids, 1.24 kWh/km tractor-trailers in 2030, improving to 0.95 and 1.06 in 2045 ^[13].
• Nature paper 2030 tractor-trailer: 110 kWh/100km BET large-battery vs 227 kWh/100km FCET ^[1], explaining BET OPEX advantage in all energy-price scenarios ^[1].
• Diesel comparator: 40 L/100km at €1.30/L = €0.52/km ^[20].
• Test-circuit extremes (not commercial operation): Actros 19.44 L/100km at 25t payload, 40t combination, 80 km/h over 12,728 km at Nardò (Guinness record context, not commercial operation) ^[69], and 12.10 mpg over 7,900 miles at Nardò ^[18].
• UK operator-recorded Actros 1845 achieved 17.1 mpg over 103 miles lightly loaded at ~20t GCW, with lifetime average up to 12.3 mpg and operation up to 36t GCW ^[71].

Measured US BET operations (useful for efficiency physics, not for DE/PL/UK tariffs):

• Tesla Semi consistently 1.55–1.9 kWh/mile (0.96–1.18 kWh/km) depending on load/terrain/style ^[16]; ABF Freight 1.55 kWh/mile over 4,494 miles / 3 weeks ^[16]; DHL 1.72 kWh/mile on 390-mile route at 75,000 lbs ^[16]; PepsiCo average 716 km (445 mi) at 80% payload vs 800 km estimate (89.5%), 1.19 kWh/km at 90 km/h vs 1.32 at 105 km/h ^[52].
• Range loss 10–12% at maximum payload (800 km empty → 700–720 km at 37,000 kg) ^[52]; 18–25% loss below 0°C ^[52]; PepsiCo summer peak 748 km, winter average 608 km ^[52]. Volvo nominal ranges of 200–400 km with latest models exceeding 500 km ^[10] should therefore be read as pre-degradation, temperate claims.

1.4 Payload penalty and weight allowance

Battery mass directly reduces payload unless compensated by regulation or by accepting shorter range (smaller battery):

• Tesla Long Range curb ~23,000 lbs, 4,000–5,000 lbs heavier than typical diesel tractor, reducing payload correspondingly ^[16].
• Germany and UK both allow additional / up to 2 tonnes for zero-emission trucks to compensate battery weight: Germany permits +2t GVW ^[10]; UK zero-emission HGVs may run up to 2t heavier than diesel limits (within axle limits), relevant for 2- and 3-axle rigids ^[78].
• Trade-off is visible in OEM specs: Volvo extended-range (larger battery) payload up to 28t at 48t GCW ^[47] vs standard FH payload up to 23.8t (4x2) at up to 65t GCW capability ^[47]; eActros 400 (2 packs) payload ~25t ^[56] vs eActros 600 (3 packs) max payload 24,000 kg at 40t ^[62]. One Fraunhofer TCO explicitly did not consider payload reductions due to heavy batteries ^[14], so its break-even is optimistic for weight-limited operations.

2. Depot vs public high-power vs megawatt charging: tariffs, utilisation and grid lead times

2.1 What each mode is for in 2026

• Depot (typically 22–400 kW): overnight predictable charging, described as cheapest and most controllable where trucks return on schedule ^[98][33]; DC fast 150–400 kW remains dominant in 2026 ^[53]; fast 22 kW suits multi-hour dwell, rapid 50 kW suits short inter-shift or shared posts, ultra-rapid 150/350 kW minimises downtime ^[33]. Short-haul can complete on single overnight depot charge ^[33]; double/triple-shift without long downtime relies exclusively on higher-power charging ^[33].
• Public high-power (CCS, typically up to 350–500 kW): en-route and destination charging (150–400 kW during loading) ^[88]; a 600+ kWh truck needs 1–2h on 300 kW dual-gun ^[53] or 60–120 min to 80% on CCS2 ^[53]; motorway rest-stop charging up to 1.2 MW for 30–45 min pauses is reported ^[88]. Few light-duty sites suit HGVs due to access, bay size, blocking and cable length ^[33].
• Megawatt (MCS, 750 kW to >1 MW, standard to 3.75 MW): targets 20–45 min (10–80%) enabling long-haul ^[98]; at 1 MW 20–80% in <30 min aligning with rest rules ^[42]; Milence reports 30–35 min revolutionising long-haul ^[85]; Volvo MCS 700 kW, Scania up to 1,000 kW, MAN up to 750 kW, eActros 1,000 kW max ^[51][55]; standard 1,250 V / 3,000 A / 3.75 MW liquid-cooled ^[42][32]; simulations show 2.8 MW/point probably sufficient even demanding ^[23]; interim need ~400 kWh in 30–45 min at 750 kW avg / 1.5 MW peak ^[23].

Forecasts expect ~2/3 of charging operations in haulier depots in 2030 ^[88]; slow charging accounts for >90% events, ~80% in depots ^[23]; but ~75% of MCS for long-haul occurs at public stations ^[23], and long-haul trucks are expected to take 50% energy at public fast chargers, visiting public once daily and depot only once every five nights ^[29]. Depot and public follow different logic: depot overnight predictable and ICCT main case, public must absorb simultaneous break peaks ^[32]. MCS suits high-throughput corridor hubs/drayage/logistics with 20+ daily departures on fixed long-haul; 150–400 kW remains more cost-effective for regional/urban/overnight ^[53].

2.2 Tariffs: depot is roughly half public where data exists

Retain original currencies; do not convert for comparison.

Intelligent management materially changes depot economics:

• Annual energy ~€53,825 intelligent vs €123,681 conventional ^[88].
• Long-term ~16.84 c/km vs up to 66 c/km ^[88].
• Savings up to 55% ^[88] and in studies up to 75% vs public ^[88].
• Investment €217,570 → €133,156 without transformer expansion via load management ^[88].
• Public adds roaming up to 7.5% plus maintenance/backend/site fees ^[88].
• Demand charges are typically $10–$25/kW/month on highest 15-min draw ^[97], commonly 30–50% of bill on DCFC-heavy depots ^[97].
• Managed charging cuts exposure 30–50% ^[97].
• 70% of new 2025 installs used dynamic allocation ^[53].

For fleets, charging is described as the biggest running-cost lever ^[34], with the home/public gap more decisive than vehicle price ^[34], and 73% of operators in 2025 citing energy procurement cost, not speed, as primary concern ^[53].

2.3 Utilisation: the decisive MCS variable

Utilisation is the most important MCS cost metric ^[23]:

• Assumed demand utilisation 16% (2025) → 48% (2045); energetic 4% → 12% ^[23].
• Levelized MCS infrastructure: €0.27/kWh (high) / €0.173/kWh (low) in 2025 → €0.10 / €0.056 in 2035 → €0.03–0.07 in 2050 ^[23]; interest 3.5%, 15-year depot+MCS life ^[23]; grid connection 900 k€ fixed per MCS pool ^[23].
• Megawatt chargers are capital-intensive and only pay off at high utilisation, far from certain early ^[32]; public urban chargers face <30% utilisation due to roaming/pricing ^[31]; MCS could cut required public station count ~70% via 2× speed and 1.5× utilisation vs CCS ^[29].

Blended-share assumption therefore swings TCO more than battery efficiency: Nature 20% public / 80% depot ^[1] vs Fraunhofer 50% fast at capped €0.44/kWh total (€0.37 ex VAT) Deutschlandnetz ^[14] vs Milence Belgian case 75% depot / 25% public at 100,000 km/yr over 7 years ^[85].

2.4 Grid-connection lead times and costs

Charger power categories used in German modelling: slow to 44 kW AC, CCS to 350 kW, MCS 350 kW–~1 MW (~1 MW suitable) ^[13]; minimum 30-min charging event, charge only if SOC insufficient for next trip or after last trip, no queuing assumed ^[13] — an optimistic utilisation assumption.

Actual February 2026 truck-suitable (≥300 kW) footprint is thin: Germany 59 sites / 274 connectors, Poland 3 / 6, UK 6 / 54 ^[85]; MCS outlets 0.5% reality 2026 vs >50% predicted 2030 ^[85]; AFIR targets cover only 53–69% of 2030 public demand per ICCT ^[32]; AFIR power installed share 3% Germany, 0% Poland, n.a. UK ^[85].

3. Per-km cost determinants as of September 2026: diesel, electricity, tolls, financing, residual

3.1 Diesel

September 2026 is a high-diesel-price moment, which flatters BETs — but policy offsets are already announced:

• EU-27 average diesel €2.075/L week of 14 Sept 2026 ^[44]; Germany record €2.45/L average Wednesday per ADAC ^[36]; Cargopedia lists Germany EUR 2.445, Poland EUR 2.009, UK EUR 2.287 ^[91]; Malta cheapest €1.210, Finland most expensive €2.505 ^[44]. Eastern-European lower prices are attributed primarily to lower excise ^[44]; highway stations charge 15–25% more than town ^[44], with Germany 18% and Poland 12% premiums in dynamic mode ^[44].
• Germany to cut petrol/diesel taxes by €0.17 from 1 Oct to year-end, talks on fuel-price cap by 1 Jan 2027, oil futures back above $100/bbl ~50% higher than before Iran war ^[36]. Any TCO using September spot diesel without noting the temporary cut overstates diesel cost for Q4 2026.
• For context, 2021 net diesel was Germany €1.16/L, Poland €0.95/L, UK €1.34/L ^[94]; Fraunhofer forward curve without VAT assumes €0.98 (2020) → €1.59 (2030) → €2.19 (2050) with rising synthetic-diesel blend ^[14]. Sensitivity work shows TCO parity arrives 1–3 years earlier if diesel doubles and electricity rises <20%, but may not arrive this decade if electricity doubles and diesel rises <50% ^[94].

3.2 Electricity and tolls together set geography

Tolls are modelled over 5-year service ^[35] with 2021-data study noting retail, residual, financing, taxes, energy, maintenance, tolls, battery replacement and infra over 5 years ^[37][41].

Germany: Since Dec 2023 toll includes CO2 charge; tolls by weight/axles/Euro/CO2 class ^[35][46][80], CO2 €200/t ^[10][80]. As of March 2026: BET 100% exempt + no CO2 charge; diesel €0.19/km + €0.158/km ^[35]; 40t Euro 6 example €0.19 → €0.348/km after +€0.158 ^[80]. Official table for Euro VI >18t 5+ axles: infra 15.5c + air 2.3c + noise 1.2c + CO2 15.8c = 34.8c/km Class 1 ^[89]; Class 2 €0.340, Class 3 €0.332, Class 4 (best) €0.269 (CO2 7.9c) ^[89]; 500 km run ~€174 Class 1 vs ~€135 Class 4 (saving €39) ^[89]; Euro VI 2026 15.1c/km in one tariff table ^[86] (different aggregation). Eurovignette revision required 50–75% zero-emission discounts ^[35]; 2025 reform allows full exemption to 30 June 2031, then max 75% ^[35]; Commission proposed extension to 30 June 2031 27 June 2025 ^[7], Parliament voted for 7 Oct 2025, Council endorsement pending ^[7]; Germany has extended to June 2031 ^[81][89]. Old law would have moved zero-emission to 25% infra + noise/air from 1 Jan 2026 ^[80], i.e. ~7–9c/km heaviest ^[82]. Concrete scale: €34,800/yr per diesel tractor at 100,000 km (34.8c) eliminated ^[82]; 10 units × 120,000 km ≈ €417,000 avoided in 2025 ^[82]; at 140,000 km ~€49,000/unit ≈ half annual BET lease ^[82]; only 2 full-exemption + 10 reduced-rate countries today ^[7].

Poland: Motorway/expressway PLN 0.56/km, national PLN 0.42/km as of March 2026 ^[35]; e-TOLL table EV 0.00 PLN/km vs Euro 6 >18t 5+ 0.52 vs Euro 1/0 0.92 ^[90]; modelled CO2 charge PLN 0.34 min – 0.68 max ^[35]. EU average for 5-axle Euro 6 is ~0.22 EUR/km ^[90]. With no German-scale toll, full exemption only narrows MY2026 long-haul gap 33.6% → 21.2% (MY2030 20.5% → 7.6%); full exemption + max CO2 charge closes to 1% (MY2026) and –10.7% (electric cheaper) MY2030; regional 17.7% → 7.4% ^[35].

UK: HGV levy for ≥12,000 kg on main roads ^[12], not per-km ^[90]; zero tailpipe (full battery or H2 fuel-cell only; hybrids/H2-combustion pay) currently exempt ^{[12][99][43][45]}; Euro 6 >38,001 kg £9.67 daily / £30.95 weekly / £61.90 monthly / £619 yearly from 1 Apr 2026 (inflation uplift ^[12]); Euro 5+ £10.74 / £40.20 / £80.40 / £804 ^[12] (older tables £9/£28.80/£57.60/£576 ^[43]; July 2025 £9.33/£29.85/£59.70/£597 Euro 6 >38t ^[45]; April 2026 annual >38t £619 Euro VI vs £804 Euro V ^[99]); must pay before entering UK, £300 fine + daily levy, immobilisation ^[12]; annual ≈ 80% of 365 dailies ^[12][43]. VED: most eligible renewing 1 July 2026–30 June 2027 pay £1 ^[99]; zero-emission >3,500 kg remain VED-exempt ^[99]. No distance toll means German ~£35k/yr toll saving does not exist ^[78].

3.3 Financing, service life and annual distance

Assumptions explain more of the spread than truck hardware:

Financing, service life and annual distance assumptions differ by study and move break-even.

• Fraunhofer baseline: 6 years, 120,000 km/a, 9.5% interest, 23% residual after 6 years identical all drivetrains ^[14]. Range variations are 100–1,000 km alternative, PHET 65 km e-range, main-drive target 1,000 km ^[14]. Toll is €0.183/km diesel, €0 BET 2020 → €0.169 2030, 92% toll-share ^[14]. 80% price-difference subsidy 2020, removed 2030/2050 ^[14].
• Last-mile study: loan 2%, NPV discount 9.5% ^[94]. Residual after 5 years is diesel 53%, BET excl. battery 53%, battery 15% ^[94]. Other synthesis: EV residual = diesel at 53% after 5 years ^[50], battery alone 43% after 5 years (2022 est.), higher if swapped ^[50]. US 3-year depreciation is 38–42% EV vs 35–40% conventional ^[93].
• Uncertainty on battery/fuel-cell lifetimes may affect residuals and raise financing costs ^[1]. Purpose-built EV lease via eFMC can transfer residual risk to lessor vs owner-retained in ownership ^[49]. Diesel-adapted vs purpose-built EV framework gap is typically 2–4 years payback ^[49]. Six missed variables are residual uncertainty, infra capex, demand charges, class-stratified maintenance, incentive timing, uptime ^[49]. Unmanaged charging loses 5–15% vehicle-hours ^[49].
• Distance benchmarks: Nature Germany tractor-trailer example 160,000 km/yr ^[1]. Annual = avg daily × 48 weeks, max daily typically 1.5–2.5× average ^[1]. German depot example is 40 trucks × 280 km/day 2-shift 5d/wk = 70,000 km/yr, needing 2 MW at 50 kW overnight or 6 MW at 150 kW inter-shift ^[20]. Polish subsidy requires ≥50,000 km/yr ^[22]. Long-haul defined as >500 km/day ^[23]. ~10% trucks not electrifiable at 400 km range ^[23]. 40–50% trucks <200–300 km/day need no public if depot built ^[20][88]. UK study finds ~2/3 rigid depot-only, >80% 44t ≥70% depot energy ^[20].

4. Break-even mileages and €/km results: measured vs simulated vs claimed

4.1 Simulations: broad consensus on direction, wide spread on timing

Simulations agree battery trucks move toward competitiveness but spread widely on timing because mileage, battery, charging and toll assumptions differ.

Charging-strategy modelling in this paper is technical feasibility and load only.

Opportunity cost of en-route charging (wages, insurance, lost profit from breaks) matters more than acquisition + hardware ^[13]. Mandatory 45-min break after 4.5h allows >100 km recharge ^[10].

• Fraunhofer charging-strategies work models 430 kW avg 2030 / 810 kW 2045 ^[13], range 280 min / 350 max (2030) → 470/590 (2045) ^[13], fleet 470k constant, 33% electrified 2030 ^[13] from 2,410 KiD 2010 single-day profiles (1,350 rigid + 1,060 tractor, no geodata) ^[13].
• Combination has 40% non-electrifiable 2030 (18% 2045) mainly due to 44 kW depot cap preventing full recharge ^[13].
• AFAP peaks are 6 GW 2030 (~10% DE avg demand) / 18 GW 2045 vs ASAP/Combination 3 GW / 8 GW ^[13].

That paper explicitly models only technical feasibility + load curve, no break-even or €/km ^[13].

4.2 Measured commercial operations

Measured operations cover United States regional, German depot, Swedish heavy-haul and European depot cases.

• PepsiCo Tesla Semi (US, regional distribution): $0.17/km vs $0.43 diesel, $68,400 vs $173,200 annual, $104,800 saving ^[52]; efficiencies and ranges as Section 1.3; 748 km summer peak, 608 km winter avg ^[52].
• ABF/DHL/NACFE: ABF 1.55 kWh/mile, DHL 1.72 kWh/mile ^[16]; NACFE up to 800 miles/day with charging breaks ^[16]; Tesla Megacharger up to 1.2 MW, 20–80% ~30 min ^[16]; only ~200 Semis delivered over 3+ yrs to 2025, volume from Nevada March 2026 targeting 50,000/yr ^[16]; 66 Megacharger sites across 15 states ^[16].
• Hellmann (DE): 300 kW depot 40%→80% in 40–60 min aligning with break ^[10]; grid cap often ~280 kW bottleneck ^[10]; limited public + high grid utilisation slowing deployment ^[10]; own stations + PV to cut public dependence ^[10].
• Mattsson Åkeri / Volvo (SE, heavy-haul): FH Electric 6x4, 74t total ^[17], 2×180 kW depot green charging, 12h/day with break charging, 43-mile Gothenburg–Borås leg, 104-ft double-trailer port traffic ^[17]; Volvo sold ~5,000 electrics across 40 countries since 2019 ^[17], 6 models series ^[17], goal 50% electric sales 2030 ^[17].
• ALICE / operator reports (EU): 25–40% fuel+maintenance cuts vs diesel ^[53]; dedicated overnight-depot fixed-route already approaching parity without subsidies ^[53].

These are regional/depot-heavy proofs. They do not validate mixed MCS long-haul at German toll-road pace with winter payloads.

4.3 Manufacturer claims vs reality check

Energy price and charging access decide payback; maintenance estimates cannot be averaged across classes.

• Energy-cost illustration at US inputs: 1.7 kWh/mile × $0.18/kWh = ~$0.31/mile vs diesel 6 mpg × $4.00/gal = ~$0.67/mile, saving $0.36/mile ($72,000/yr at 200,000 mi) ^[16]. Payback on $110k premium 2–3 yrs favourable, ~4 yrs conservative, compelling for depot-based 150,000+ mi/yr ^[16]. At consistent >$0.42/kWh and 2.0 kWh/mi = $0.84/mi vs $0.83 diesel, public-heavy operation crosses above diesel ^[54].
• Maintenance claims: US 40–50% lower, $6–12k/vehicle lifespan ^[48]. CARB 4.7c/mi (~$4,700/yr per 100k mi) ^[15]. German €0.057/km electric vs €0.105 diesel ^[88]. Ireland €3–6k/yr ^[62]. Regen is 50–70% less brake wear ^[48]. These are directionally consistent but class-stratified — a Class 3 van vs Class 7 utility vs Class 8 tractor cannot share one average ^[49].
• Charging-time claims assume MCS availability that barely exists: eActros MCS 20–80% ~30 min is based on internal simulations while MCS standard was still in development ^[66]. Volvo extended MCS is 700 kW ^[47] vs deployed German first public MCS 29 Sept 2025 A2 Lipperland Süd up to 1.2 MW (EnBW/ABB, HoLa) ^[32], Milence Antwerp-Bruges up to 1,440 kW ^[32], Milence MILES plan 284 MCS at 71 sites in 10 countries by 2027 ^[32], Scania MCS trucks commercial early 2026 at up to 750 kW initial ^[53]. February 2026 reality is Section 2.4 counts.

The 2–4 years payback gap between diesel-adapted and purpose-built EV frameworks ^[49] explains part of why fleets report different break-evens for the same truck.

Active energy management cutting charging cost 20–40% vs unmanaged ^[49] explains why a fleet with sequential/off-peak scheduling and a fleet on unmanaged public charging report different break-evens for the same truck.

5. Regulations, subsidies, weight allowances and infrastructure targets that move the break-even

5.1 Germany

• Vehicle purchase: The much-reported €3bn for ~800,000 vehicles 2026–29, up to €6,000 varying by vehicle/income/family ^[2][19], basic €3,000 BEV / €1,500 PHEV/range-extender for first registration from 1 Jan 2026 ^[21], retroactive applications from January, portal opened 19 May 2026 ^[19][2][21], income cap €80k + €5k/child to €90k, +€500/child (max 2), +€1,000 <€60k + another €1,000 <€45k, 36-mo Germany registration hold ^[21] — explicitly excludes commercial vehicles and is M1 cars + private individuals only ^[73][21], self-employed only if private non-business use ^[21]. It provides no 40–44t BET subsidy. The relevant truck scheme is KsNI via BALM for climate-friendly commercial vehicles ^[27], plus state top-ups e.g. NRW, TruckCharge@BW up to 40% SMEs, BW-e-Trucks up to 60% extra costs ^[88]. Germany phased out comprehensive vehicle subsidy Jan 2024 ^[20].
• Charging: €1bn over 4 years (€200m 2026 first tranche), up to €500 net/kW depot + public, eligible grid connection + storage + load management ^[27]; calls 26 May–7 July 2026 competitive (€/kW decides) + SMEs non-public from 5 June first-come ^[27], via PtJ + National Control Centre, guideline to 2029 ^[27][83]; plus €1.6bn hubs ~130 sites / 1,410 points (≥400 kW CCS + 1,000 kW MCS) ^[8] as part of 350-node strategy ^[8]; Deutschlandnetz Lkw ~350 sites / ~4,200 points by 2030 ^[27][32]; separate motorway rest-area tender ^[27].
• Toll + weight: Exemption to 30 June 2031 ^[81][89]; +2t allowance ^[10]. Operators can act now by prioritising zero-emission on A3/A5/A9, passing 6–8% rate cut while holding margin, and indexing contracts to future Class 5 CO2 toll ^[82], shortening payback to as little as 4 years on intensive line-haul in toll-free window ^[82].

5.2 Poland

Poland vehicle, charging and grid support shape break-even alongside credits and tolls.

• Vehicle purchase/lease: NFOŚiGW PLN 2bn budget ^[4], N3 max 750,000 zł, N2 max 400,000 zł ^[4], intensity 30% large / 50% medium / 60% micro+small for purchase ^[4] and same for leasing capped at initial fee ^[4], single applicant + related ≤15% budget ^[4], apps 30 May 2025–30 June 2029 ^[4], entrepreneurs with PL HQ/branch ^[4], difference vs combustion reference ^[4], N2+N3 zero-emission (battery/H2 fuel-cell/no-GHG engine) ^[4]. Draft had PLN 1bn, N3 750k / N2 400k caps, same intensities, new electric/H2 N2 3.5–12t + N3 >12t, ≥50,000 km/yr, qualified costs net of combustion benchmark, grant or initial-fee grant ^[22]. EIB-approved aid totals €1.4bn, incl. €465m purchase/lease (double original) ^[24], same size bands ^[24][25], total 400k N2 / 750k N3, ≤ upfront lease ^[25]. One vendor summary lists medium 40% not 50% ^[74] — use official NFOŚiGW 50% medium ^[4] and treat 40% as uncorroborated. Industry notes price gap larger than cars, subsidies essential ^[25], and only ~100 eHDVs operating ^[24], 105 N3 registered 2024 vs 7,516 EU ^[25].
• Charging + grid: PLN 1bn public HDV stations 31 Mar–31 Aug 2025, up to 100% (85% project-finance with ≥15% own) ^[75], PLN 800m (80%) TEN-T core + PLN 200m (20%) logistics/depots/intermodal ^[75], cap PLN 400m/applicant ^[75], TEN-T or ≤3 km from exit, logistics at/≤3 km ^[75], two baskets ranked on funding efficiency (subsidy/capacity), bottom 5% excluded ^[75]; plus 4bn PLN total (2bn stations + 2bn grid) ^[25], station minima 2×350 kW TEN-T, 1×350 kW depot/intermodal, upgrades to 350 kW eligible ^[25], grid minima 3,600 kW MOP core, 1,500 kW extended/comprehensive, 350 kW logistics ≤3 km ^[25]; AFIR requires ≥2,800 kW half core by end 2027 → 3,600 kW by 2030 ^[25], Poland 0% implemented ^[25]; vehicle subsidies announced for Q2 2025 ^[25]; efficient coordination + swift launch deemed essential ^[25]. EIB €465m stations (80% TEN-T / 20% logistics) ^[24] plus grid programme for DSOs along TEN-T/logistics/bases/intermodal (one source prints €465 billion, retain as printed but treat as likely unit error without corroboration) ^[24].
• Other levers: RED III electricity crediting could cut long-haul TCO 10% moderate / up to 19% direct-renewables, advancing parity 1–2 years to 2026 in crediting scenarios ^[28] (grid 26% renew 2023 → 50.1% 2030 moderate / 59.1% 2040 ^[28]); e-TOLL EV 0.00 ^[90]; industry asks for toll exemptions, LEZ access, +weight, tax breaks, streamlined ultra-fast grid law for AFIR TEN-T ^[22]; TSL 6% GDP, 125k firms, 750k people ^[22] (alt 7% GDP, 457bn PLN, ~170k firms, ~103k road ^[25]), fleet ~1.2m largest EU ^[22].

5.3 United Kingdom

• Vehicle purchase: Zero Emission Truck Grant from 1 Apr 2026: up to £81,000 >26t, £52,000 18–26t, £37,000 12–18t, £15,000 4.25–12t, cap 40% price, 100 vehicles/customer ^[78]; standard discounts up to £16k small (4.25–12t) / £25k large (>12t) ^[26]; Jan 2026 top-up +£18m for 2025–26 to £120k >26t (smallest £20k) ^[26][77]; 2025–26 caps 250 small (10/customer) + 100 large (5/customer) ^[26]; confirmed to at least 2027 but 2026–27 rates separate — check gov.uk before ordering ^[26]; eligibility 0g CO2/km + ≥96 km (60 mi) zero-emission ^[5]; dealer/manufacturer claims point-of-sale discount, fleets do not apply ^[26][5]; only battery + H2 fuel-cell (not CNG/LNG/biomethane) ^[26]; higher cash than van grant reflects HGV price gap ^[26]; grant cuts capex not running cost ^[26]; infrastructure + residual remain bigger whole-life questions ^[26].
• Charging: Depot Scheme 70% HW+install to £1m/org, £170m to 2030 ^[77][78][96]; Window 1 25 Mar–30 Jun 2026 (£28m) ^[96], Window 2 28 Oct 2026–29 Jan 2027 (£38m) ^[78][96], total £66m both 2026 windows ^[96], delivery by 31 Mar 2027 / 2028 ^[96], future rates unconfirmed ^[96]; must own/lease UK depot, ≥1 yr UK operation, commercial-vehicle primary use, senior approval + monitoring ^[96]; part of £1bn 25 Mar 2026 package ^[96][77]; first-come ^[77].
• Tax + weight + phase-out: Full expensing 100% yr1 — £270k truck at 25% tax ≈ £67k yr1 cash-flow (timing, not grant) ^[78]; levy+VED £0 zero-emission ^[78][99]; +2t within axle limits ^[78]; ban <26t non-zero 2035, all 2040 ^[78]; 2025 only 587/40,504 new HGVs zero (1.4%), diesel residuals expected to move from 2026 ^[78].

5.4 What changes the answer — decision table

Depot-based high-mileage operation is most favourable; public-heavy long-haul remains marginal without high utilisation.

6. Limitations / Open Questions

• No observed 40–44t BET financing or residual values in DE/PL/UK. Models use 9.5% + 23% after 6 yrs identical ^[14] or 2% loan + 9.5% discount + 53%/53%/15% after 5 yrs ^[94] or 53% parity / 43% battery ^[50]. Battery/fuel-cell lifetime uncertainty raising financing ^[1] is acknowledged but not quantified for September 2026 transactions. Do not extrapolate US 38–42% 3-yr EV depreciation ^[93] to EU tractors.
• September 2026 diesel spike vs forward TCO. EU €2.075/L ^[44] and German €2.45/L ^[36] are spot records; German –€0.17 Oct–Dec cut and possible Jan 2027 cap ^[36] mean any annualisation using September prices overstates diesel cost. Sensitivity bands (+100% diesel / <+20% power brings parity 1–3 yrs early; doubling power without +50% diesel may block parity this decade ^[94]) should be shown, not point estimates.
• ICCT Germany margin discrepancy. –10.1%/–11.4% ^[35] vs –4.8%/–6.8% ^[39] for MY2026 reflects different toll/CO2 scenarios or vintages; treat as uncertainty band and check whether 2030 100% exemption incl. beyond 2031 ^[35] survives Council adoption ^[7].
• Utilisation and opportunity cost are modelled, not measured for MCS long-haul. Levelized MCS €0.27→€0.03–0.07 hinges on 16%→48% demand / 4%→12% energetic ^[23]; en-route wage/insurance/profit cost exceeds hardware ^[13]; 30-min minimum, no queuing ^[13] and once-daily public + once-per-5-nights depot ^[29] are stylised. Measured proofs are depot-heavy (PepsiCo 92% depot ^[52]; Hellmann depot-break alignment ^[10]).
• Infrastructure announcements ≠ energised capacity. German €1bn + €1.6bn hubs ^[27][8], Polish PLN 2bn + PLN 1bn + 4bn PLN ^[4][75][25], UK £1bn + £170m depot ^[77][96], Milence 284 MCS / 71 sites by 2027 ^[32], Deutschlandnetz ~350 sites / ~4,200 points by 2030 ^[27][32] and AFIR 60 km / 100 km ^[1] coexist with Feb 2026 reality of 274 / 6 / 54 ≥300 kW connectors in DE/PL/UK ^[85] and 0.5% MCS outlets ^[85]. Grid queues (2.5 yrs large park ^[27]; 5–6 yrs SMEs ^[32]; decade UK ^[20]) and phantom 240 GW conditions in Poland ^[30] mean lead time, not headline funding, binds 2026–2028 decisions.
• Payload and range interactions for 44t UK vs 40t EU operations remain thinly evidenced. +2t allowances ^[10][78] do not fully offset 4–5k lbs penalties seen on long-range BETs ^[16] for dense goods; one key TCO omits payload loss ^[14]. Winter (–18 to –25% ^[52]) and speed (1.19 vs 1.32 kWh/km ^[52]) effects should be applied to manufacturer 500–700 km claims ^[56][47] before route planning.
• Evidence gaps by country: Poland has TCO inputs (PLN 1.16/1.71 ^[35]; zł1.2/1.7 ^[28]) and toll tables (0.00 EV ^[90]) but almost no measured 40t BET cost-per-km; UK has levy/VED/grant specifics but no distance-toll lever and limited truck-tariff metering (car-index 54p/77p/74p ^[87] is not a truck tariff); Germany has richest toll + depot-cost data but SME connection waits ^[32] limit generalisation from large-fleet pilots.

Sources

^[1] Cost competitiveness of alternative heavy-duty truck technologies under real-world utilisation profiles — https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-76265-1?error=cookies_not_supported&code=435f41a6-e597-4583-9fa9-c0ab8f737494 · academic ^[2] Grant scheme for electric vehicles (EVs) — https://www.bundesumweltministerium.de/en/grant-for-electric-vehicles-evs · government ^[3] The Current and Future Performance and Costs of Battery ... — https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/62539/dot_62539_DS1.pdf · government ^[4] Dofinansowanie na zeroemisyjne ciężarówki - rusza nabór wniosków w programie z budżetem 2 mld zł - Narodowy Fundusz Ochrony Środowiska i Gospodarki Wodnej - Portal Gov.pl — https://www.gov.pl/web/nfosigw/dofinansowanie-na-zeroemisyjne-ciezarowki--rusza-nabor-wnioskow-w-programie-z-budzetem-2-mld-zl · government ^[5] Zero emission vehicles eligible for a grant — https://www.gov.uk/zero-emission-vehicle-grants/trucks · government ^[7] EU backs extended toll exemption for zero emission trucks — https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/general-information/news/eu-backs-extended-toll-exemption-zero-emission-trucks · government ^[8] German €1.6 Billion E-Truck Charging Hub Funding Approved by EU — A Milestone for Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Corridors — https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/general-information/news/german-eu16-billion-e-truck-charging-hub-funding-approved-eu-milestone · government ^[9] Grid connection of RES and incentive system for DSOs — https://www.ure.gov.pl/download/2/243/GridconnectionofRESandincentivesystemforDSOs.pdf · government ^[10] Are electric heavy-duty trucks viable in real-world operations? — https://www.wfb-bremen.de/en/page/bremen-invest/electric-heavy-duty-trucks · government ^[12] How to use the HGV levy service — https://www.gov.uk/guidance/how-to-use-the-hgv-levy-service · government ^[13] Charging Strategies for Battery Electric Trucks in Germany — https://publica-rest.fraunhofer.de/server/api/core/bitstreams/8919677a-2264-45e4-a584-089d3f9ec6fe/content · professional ^[14] Attractiveness of alternative fuel trucks with regard to current ... — https://publica-rest.fraunhofer.de/server/api/core/bitstreams/f4aa7316-a8e7-4cc7-80bb-064681bb4c6b/content · professional ^[15] Maximizing Savings: Diesel vs Electric Truck Analysis — https://heavydutyjournal.com/total-cost-of-ownership-diesel-vs-electric-truck/ · professional ^[16] Tesla Semi: Real-World Performance, Pricing, and Market Status – ITK Research — https://itkservices3.com/background/tesla_semi · professional ^[17] Volvo Unveils Electric Heavy-Haul Tractor in Europe — https://www.truckinginfo.com/news/volvo-unveils-electric-heavy-haul-tractor-in-europe · professional ^[18] Mercedes-Benz Truck Sets Fuel Mileage Record — https://www.truckinginfo.com/news/mercedes-benz-truck-sets-fuel-mileage-record · professional ^[19] Germany launches new electric car subsidy portal aimed at low-income households — https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-launches-new-electric-car-subsidy-scheme-aimed-low-income-households · professional ^[20] Truck depot charging | Transport & Environment — https://uploads.transportenvironment.org/production/files/TE_truck-depot-charging_final-report.pdf · professional ^[21] E-car funding 2026: Applications now available online — https://www.profi-werkstatt.net/en/news/e-car-funding-2026-applications-now-available-online-234918.html?cmpscreencustom= · professional ^[22] Polish government takes steps to boost electromobility in heavy transport - Poland Insight — https://polandinsight.com/polish-government-takes-steps-to-boost-electromobility-in-heavy-transport-83530/ · professional ^[23] Future Demand and Costs of Megawatt Charging for ... — https://publica-rest.fraunhofer.de/server/api/core/bitstreams/c7b00dbe-d594-4ccf-9e01-6f70eecb5ca0/content · professional ^[24] Poland Secures €1.4 Billion Electric Heavy Truck Investment and Charging Infrastructure | Happy Eco News — https://happyeconews.com/poland-electric-heavy-truck-investment/ · professional ^[25] 4 Billion PLN for eHDV Infrastructure – Two Key NFOŚiGW Support Programs Launched - Poland Insight — https://polandinsight.com/4-billion-pln-for-ehdv-infrastructure-two-key-nfosigw-support-programs-launched-97495/ · professional ^[26] Plug-in Truck Grant 2026: Amounts, Eligibility and How to Apply — https://gvnetwork.co.uk/blog/plug-in-truck-grant-2026-eligibility.html · professional ^[27] Charging Infrastructure for E-Trucks: Germany's 1-Billion-Euro Program — https://www.innobu.com/en/articles/charging-infrastructure-funding-e-trucks-federal-program-2026.html · professional ^[28] Electricity crediting for depot charging — https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/ID-303-%E2%80%93-RED-Poland_working-paper_final.pdf · professional ^[29] Europe's charging infrastructure for electric HDVs — https://www.ecgassociation.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/ECG-Business-Intelligence-29.08-Charging-infrastructure-for-HGVs.pdf · professional ^[30] Poland: Grid Act to Change RES and BESS Grid Connection Rules | Insight | Baker McKenzie — https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications/2026/03/poland-grid-act-to-change-res-and-bess-grid-connection-rules · professional ^[31] Germany Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Market Report 2031 — https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/germany-electric-vehicle-charging-equipment-market · professional ^[32] Megawatt Charging System for electric trucks: the standard and the rollout 2026 — https://www.innobu.com/en/articles/mcs-megawatt-charging-e-trucks-2026.html · professional ^[33] 3. Charging Rates, Types and Locations | — https://bett.cenex.co.uk/guidance/charging-rates-types-and-locations · professional ^[34] EV charging for fleets — https://www.thrivefleet.co.uk/topics/ev-charging-for-fleets · professional ^[35] Road tolls and CO2 charges: Impact on the total cost of ownership of trucks in Europe — https://theicct.org/road-tolls-and-co2-charges-impact-on-the-total-cost-of-ownership-of-trucks-in-europe-apr26/ · professional ^[36] Record fuel prices across EU prompt calls for bloc-wide windfall tax on firms — https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/18/eu-europe-fuel-prices-calls-windfall-tax-energy-firms · professional ^[37] Total cost of ownership for tractor-trailers in Europe: Battery electric versus diesel — https://trid.trb.org/View/1894359 · professional ^[39] ICCT releases new study about the impact of road tolls on the adoption of electric trucks in the major EU countries — https://www.sustainabletruckvan.com/icct-study-impact-road-tolls-electric-trucks/ · professional ^[41] Total cost of ownership for tractor-trailers in Europe: Battery electric versus diesel - International Council on Clean Transportation — https://theicct.org/publication/total-cost-of-ownership-for-tractor-trailers-in-europe-battery-electric-versus-diesel/ · professional ^[42] Heavy Truck Charging Stations: Costs, Charge Rates and Global Deployment – ITK Research — https://itkservices3.com/background/truck_charging · professional ^[43] Zero-emission HGVs exempt from UK’s reintroduced HGV Levy — https://trans.info/en/zero-emission-hgvs-exempt-hgv-levy-356558 · professional ^[44] European Fuel Prices Dataset 2026 — https://www.fuel-prices.eu/ · general ^[45] The return of the UK HGV levy | MHF Trucks — https://mhf.uk.com/the-return-of-the-uk-hgv-levy/ · general ^[46] Toll & toll billing after CO2 class introduction: How to determine the CO2 class of your vehicle — https://www.dkv-mobility.com/uk/en/toll/toll-services-by-country/co2-toll · general ^[47] Volvo launches new electric trucks – with ranges up to 700 km — https://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/news-stories/press-releases/2026/apr/volvo-launches-new-electric-trucks---with-ranges-up-to-700-km.html · general ^[48] EV Fleet Total Cost of Ownership: 5-Year Projection for a 25-Truck Operation — https://fleetrabbit.com/article/ev-fleet-total-cost-ownership-year · general ^[49] Fleet Electrification TCO: What Your Model Is Missing — https://inspirationmobility.com/news/fleet-electrification-tco-model · general ^[50] How to Better Predict your EV Fleet’s Total Cost of Ownership — https://www.terawattinfrastructure.com/blog/how-to-better-predict-your-ev-fleets-total-cost-of-ownership · general ^[51] Electric Trucks 2026: Models & Ranges — https://www.iodynamics.de/blog/comparison-of-electric-trucks/ · general ^[52] The Best Heavy Duty Electric Trucks: TOP 5 Models Rated by Range in 2026 — https://motorwatt.com/ratings/best-heavy-duty-electric-trucks · general ^[53] Electric Truck Charging Trends in 2026: What Fleet Operators Need to Know - Joint Charging — https://jointcharging.com/electric-truck-charging-trends-in-2026-what-fleet-operators-need-to-know/ · general ^[54] EV Fleet Charging Cost Calculator: $ per Mile for 2026 Models — https://fleetrabbit.com/blogs/post/ev-fleet-charging-cost-per-mile-calculator · general ^[55] Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 — 6×2 chassis — with Kiesling electrically refrigerated body — https://distritrucks.com/mercedes-benz-eactros-600-6x2-chassis-with-kiesling-electric-refrigerated-body/ · general ^[56] eActros | Mercedes-Benz Trucks International — https://www.mercedes-benz-trucks.com/int/en/trucks/eactros.html · general ^[57] Volvo FH. The original long-haul icon. — https://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/trucks/models/volvo-fh.html · general ^[59] Selling a Volvo FH in 2026 — Which Generation, Spec and Power Output Gets You the Best Price? — https://trucktrading.co.uk/volvo-fh-which-spec-gets-best-price-uk/ · general ^[61] Volvo FH Specs 2026: Diesel, Electric & Aero Models — https://www.accio.com/business/volvo-fh-specs · general ^[62] Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 | EV Ireland 2026 | De Energy Hub — https://deenergyhub.ie/ev/mercedes-eactros-600.html · general ^[63] Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 Price and Review — https://ev.motorwatt.com/ev-database/database-electric-trucks/mercedes-benz-eactros-600 · general ^[64] eActros | Mercedes-Benz Trucks UK — https://www.mercedes-benz-trucks.com/gb/en/trucks/eactros.html · general ^[65] Volvo FH Aero Electric — https://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/trucks/electric/volvo-fh-aero-electric.html · general ^[66] Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 | New Electric Truck for Sale — https://www.rcm-saga.uk/mercedes-benz/new-trucks/e-actros-600 · general ^[68] Volvo truck tractors, 2026 year | Autoline Europe — https://autoline.info/-/truck-tractors/Volvo/2026--c42tm2819ym2026 · general ^[69] Just 19.44 liters with a 25-tonne payload: Actros is consumption record holder | marsClassic — https://mercedes-benz-publicarchive.com/marsClassic/en/instance/ko/Just-1944-liters-with-a-25-tonne-payload-Actros-is-consumption-record-holder.xhtml?oid=4913585 · general ^[70] DAF XG truck tractors, 2026 year | Autoline USA — https://autoline.com/-/truck-tractors/DAF/XG/2026--c42tm2525m47907ym2026 · general ^[71] 17.1 mpg! GBA’s Mercedes-Benz Actros sets a new standard for fuel efficiency - Mercedes-Benz Van and Truck Sales, Service & Parts — https://www.ciceley.com/customer-stories/17-1-mpg-gbas-mercedes-benz-actros-sets-a-new-standard-for-fuel-efficiency/ · general ^[73] Electric vehicle subsidy — https://amtsguide.de/en/electric-vehicle-subsidy/ · general ^[74] Poland’s 2025 EV Truck Subsidies: Up to PLN 750,000 per Vehicle + Full Charging Support — https://www.ampcontrol.io/post/polands-2025-ev-truck-subsidies-up-to-pln-750-000-per-vehicle-full-charging-support · general ^[75] Poland Launches Subsidy Program for Heavy-Duty Vehicle Charging Infrastructure — https://kempower.com/poland-launches-subsidy-program-for-heavy-duty-vehicle-charging-infrastructure/ · general ^[77] £1 Billion Government Funding Boost for Electric Trucks & Vans — https://www.ciceley.com/1-billion-government-funding-boost-for-electric-trucks-vans/ · general ^[78] UK e-truck grants 2026: ZETG, depot charging, levy | truckoo — https://truckoo.com/en/elektro/foerderung · general ^[80] New changes to the German Maut (Toll) from December 2023 — https://www.cargors.com/new-changes-to-the-german-maut-toll-from-december-2023/ · general ^[81] European businesses call for full implementation of the Eurovignette Directive exemption power for zero-emission trucks — https://globaldrivetozero.org/2026/04/21/european-businesses-eurovignette-directive/ · general ^[82] Germany’s 2025 Zero-Emission Truck Toll Exemption — https://ifa-forwarding.net/blog/green-logistics/germanys-2025-zero-emission-truck-toll-exemption/ · general ^[83] Germany's billion-euro program for electric truck charging infrastructure: Kempower is driving the next era of heavy-duty charging — https://kempower.com/news/germanys-billion-euro-program-for-electric-truck-charging-infrastructure-kempower-is-driving-the-next-era-of-heavy-duty-charging/ · general ^[84] Milence demonstrates the first Megawatt Charging System (MCS) at the hub in Landvetter, Sweden together with Volvo Trucks bringing Europe closer to its first MCS corridor — https://milence.com/newsroom/milence-demonstrates-the-first-megawatt-charging-system-at-the-hub-in-landvetter-sweden-together-with-volvo-trucks/ · general ^[85] Driving electrification of eHDV — https://milence.com/app/uploads/2026/04/EN_Milence_PowertogoFurther_Presentation_Maasmechelen.pdf · general ^[86] Germany Toll Roads Complete Guide: Autobahn, Truck Tolls and Payment 2026 — https://tollguru.com/german-autobahn-vignette-tunnel-toll-collect · general ^[87] Zapmap Price Index - Average weighted price to charge on the public network - Zapmap — https://www.zapmap.com/ev-stats/charging-price-index · general ^[88] Depotladen Vergleich: Was ist günstiger - Depot oder öffentliche Ladestationen für E-LKW? — https://amba-operations.com/depotladen-vergleich-was-ist-guenstiger-depot-oder-oeffentliche-ladestationen-fuer-e-lkw/ · general ^[89] Germany truck toll rate per km: the 2026 LKW-Maut guide — https://www.logifie.com/blog/germany-truck-toll-rate-per-km-2026 · general ^[90] Road Tolls in Europe 2026: Price List for 46 Countries (Part 1) — https://onyxtms.com/en/blog/truck-road-tolls-in-europe-2026-part-one · general ^[91] European Fuel Prices — https://www.cargopedia.net/europe-fuel-prices · general ^[93] How to Calculate EV Fleet Total Cost of Ownership — https://www.7gen.com/blog/calculate-fleet-total-cost-ownership/ · general ^[94] ELECTRIFYING LAST-MILE DELIVERY — https://clean-trucking.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Last-mile-delivery-with-RAP-report-A4-fv856.pdf · general ^[95] What does it cost to charge an electric car? — https://voltracharging.com/en/blogs/how-costs-to-charge-an-electric-car/ · general ^[96] UK Depot Charging Scheme: What It Means for EV Fleet Charging — https://www.power-sonic.com/uk-depot-charging-scheme/ · general ^[97] Fleet EV Charging Infrastructure Cost (2026): Depot vs Public Guide — https://heavyvehicleinspection.com/blog/post/fleet-ev-charging-infrastructure-cost-guide · general ^[98] EV Charging for Electric Trucks: Infrastructure, Types, Models, Requirements, and Costs - Monta — https://monta.com/en-us/blog/ev-charging-for-electric-trucks/ · general ^[99] HGV Road Tax 2026: the complete guide for UK hauliers — https://haulageexchange.co.uk/blog/hgv-road-tax-2026-guide/ · general

Source quality: 1 academic, 9 government, 29 professional, 49 general.

Verification

• Measured PepsiCo Tesla Semi 5.8m km, 425 km/day, 716 km range, $0.17/km vs $0.43/km diesel, $104,800 saving, 92% depot, 4.2 vs 12.7 maintenance events from ^[52] Motorwatt rating site and ^[16] ITK Research aggregators, not primary PepsiCo/NACFE telematics or invoices; US regional distribution in $/mile, not DE/PL/UK 40-44t tariffs, weights, tolls or MCS long-haul at >500 km/day.
• Energy-cost geography uses temporal and category mismatches: ICCT assumptions DE EUR 0.286/kWh private vs EUR 0.40/kWh public and PL PLN 1.16 vs PLN 1.71 ^[35], Eurostat H2 2023 DE EUR 0.22/0.19 and UK EUR 0.36 ^[20], UK car Zapmap home ~26p vs rapid 77p avg Aug 2026 ^[87][34] as truck proxy vs Milence UK truck hub 39p/kWh ^[42]; car index is not a truck MCS tariff and 2023/modelled prices are not September 2026 metered truck tariffs.
• Intelligent depot savings EUR 53,825 vs EUR 123,681 per year, 16.84c/km vs up to 66c/km, 55% and up to 75% vs public, EUR 217,570 to EUR 133,156 without transformer ^[88] from amba-operations commercial blog without methodology, sample, load profile or bill breakdown; cannot generalise to 40-44t depots.
• German toll advantage ~EUR 0.32/km, EUR 34,800/yr at 100,000 km, 10 units x 120,000 km ~EUR 417,000, Paris-Berlin EUR 0.995/km electric vs ~EUR 1.003/km diesel ^{[35][82][85][89]} is scenario-dependent: 100% exemption + no CO2 charge to 30 June 2031 ^[81][89] vs old law 25% infra + noise/air ~7-9c/km from 1 Jan 2026 ^[80], ICCT -10.1%/-11.4% ^[35] vs -4.8%/-6.8% ^[39] unresolved, Commission proposal 27 June 2025 Parliament vote 7 Oct 2025 Council pending ^[7]; official rate aggregations 15.5c+2.3c+1.2c+15.8c=34.8c vs 15.1c/km ^[86][89] not reconciled.
• UK levy arithmetic and VED claims unsupported: annual ~=80% of 365 dailies ^[12][43] is arithmetically wrong for EUR example GBP 9.67 daily x365=GBP 3,529 vs GBP 619 yearly; GBP 300 fine, immobilisation, GBP 1 VED 1 July 2026-30 June 2027, zero-emission exemption ^{[12][99][43][45]} from gov guidance plus haulage blogs, not primary legislation, and no distance toll means GBP 35k/yr German saving does not transfer ^[78].
• Purchase and residual gap has no observed 2026 40-44t BET transaction or resale in DE/PL/UK: 2-3x premium ^[10][51], US $150k-180k diesel vs $350k-500k electric, $450k+$500k with excise, $290k Semi vs $180k diesel ^{[15][48][50][16]}, aggregator $276,525/$350,000/$450,000 ^[52][63], Ireland EUR 390,000 incl 23% VAT vs EUR 131,000 ex VAT differential EUR 186,073 ^[62] incomparable VAT bases; models use 9.5% +23% after 6yrs identical ^[14], 2% loan +9.5% discount +53%/53%/15% after 5yrs ^[94], 53% parity/43% battery ^[50], US 38-42% 3-yr EV depreciation ^[93] not transferable.
• Manufacturer 500-700 km ranges, 585/780 kWh, 621 kWh, 728 kWh, 700 kW-1,000 kW MCS, 20-80% ~30-50 min ^{[47][51][55][56][65]} are test-condition claims at 40t 20C preconditioned ^[56][66] or internal simulations while MCS standard still in development ^[66], contradicted by February 2026 energised reality DE 59 sites/274 connectors, PL 3/6, UK 6/54 >=300 kW, 0.5% MCS outlets vs >50% predicted 2030, AFIR 3% DE 0% PL ^[85][25] from Milence CPO presentation with commercial interest.
• Grid lead times conflate legal deadlines with experienced queues and use secondary sources: DE up to 2.5yrs large park ^[27], 5-6yrs SMEs ^[32], 3 months to years ^[20], PL 30 days <=1kV 150 days >1kV ^[9] vs Grid Act UC84 March 2026 1yr validity PLN 1/kW cap PLN 100k collateral PLN 30/kW to 100MW +PLN 60/kW above ^[30], UK up to decade ^[20] vs 6-18 months with grant ^[78], MW 12-36 months ^[53][97]; costs EUR 70k-20m, PLN hundreds of thousands, GBP 50k/truck ^[20][25][78] with no DSO offer; 240 GW phantom conditions ^[30] and EUR 465 billion print ^[24] likely unit error retained without corroboration.
• September 2026 diesel spike EU EUR 2.075/L week 14 Sept ^[44], DE EUR 2.45/L ADAC ^[36], Cargopedia DE EUR 2.445 PL EUR 2.009 UK EUR 2.287 ^[91] are spot records during Iran war oil >$100/bbl ~50% higher ^[36]; German -EUR 0.17 Oct-Dec cut and Jan 2027 cap talk ^[36] from single Guardian 18 Sept 2026 article are announced not enacted; annualising spot overstates diesel vs Fraunhofer forward EUR 0.98 2020 to EUR 1.59 2030 to EUR 2.19 2050 ^[14] and sensitivity +100% diesel/<+20% power brings parity 1-3yrs early vs doubling power blocks parity ^[94].
• Break-even mileages from simulations not measurements with stylised artefacts: Fraunhofer ~220,000 km/a, 100 km BET most cost-effective, FCET competitive just under 100,000 km/a, 500 km BET EUR 20,000 above diesel 2030 ^[14] with 6yrs 120,000 km/a 9.5% identical residuals 92% toll-share 80% price subsidy removed 2030 ^[14] and no payload loss ^[14]; Nature 91% small/69% large competitive by 2030, 30%/53% feasible 2030 to 78%/96% 2040 ^[1] with fixed usage no foresight 1:1 diesel variability 1.12/1.24 kWh/km 2030 to 0.95/1.06 2045 280/350 km 2030 to 470/590 km 2045 430 kW 2030/810 kW 2045 own assumptions 44 kW depot cap causing 40% non-electrifiable 2030 ^[13] 30-min min no queuing ^[13]; paper explicitly models only technical feasibility + load, no break-even EUR/km ^[13], and overestimates public need by ignoring rescheduling/higher-range choice; opportunity wage/insurance/profit cost > hardware ^[13] unquantified for MCS.